NL Hot Corner: Struggling Ace – The best bloopers are here

So when an ace pitcher such as Cole Hamels has a not so prototypical season, you start asking yourself some questions. Why is he so hot some months and so not in others. In May and July the Phillies were 9 and 2 in his eleven appearances. In June and September he posted a 3.31era and 3.32era. But in April and August he posted a 7.27era and a 4.91era going 0 and 5 in the process.

Then it clicked during his game 5 start against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. Hamels is lacking the usual concentration when putting hitters away this season. It was in this game that Hamels would give up three solo home runs. The first two to Andre Ethier and James Loney on 1-2 counts on pitches over the plate. And the third to Orlando Hudson in the fourth inning shortly after the Phills blew the game wide open. Then I began thinking about the home run given up in the previous playoff series to Yorvit Torrealba, starting catcher for the Colorado Rockies.

Yorvit Torrealb is many things and a home run hitter is not one of them. In fact he hit only two dingers throughout the entire regular season his last on May 6, over 5 months prior to his playoff home run against Hamels. But this seemed to be a reoccurring theme for Hamels throughout the season. In fact 8 of the last 11 home runs given up are that of the solo persuasion.

Looking at his statistics over the past four seasons, we can see that Hamels is not putting hitters away on pitcher friendly counts this season. A lack of concentration is affecting his execution. The 2009 season saw a jump of 22pts in batting average against with an 0-2 count than his previous career high. And even worse it would see a jump of .49pts on 1-2 counts than his previous career high.

We all have watched him pitch over his last 5 outings. His stuff is there. His fast ball is locating. His change up is fooling batters. Even his curve is working. In tough games this regular season, when it mattered the most he stepped up his game. Earlier this year he pitched a gem against the Yanks earning a quality start. In 2 starts against the rival Dodgers he posted a .56 earned run average. He even outdueled Dan Haren early in the season when he was unbeatable.

I can only show you the numbers and the numbers show that he is not finishing off hitters this season like he was the past three. Is it fatigue? Is it personal matters? I can’t answer that. But what I do know is that he has shined brightest throughout his career when it matters most.

In the history of Major League Baseball there have been only 23 players have hit for 40 or more doubles and 40 or more home runs in the same season, a feat that has been accomplished only 32 times. This past season Albert Pujols joins Lou Gehrig as the only two players to accomplish this feat three times.

There have been 6 players to hit 45 or more doubles and 45 or more home runs in the same season. This past year Albert Pujols joins Albert Belle as the only two players to accomplish this feat twice.

Albert Belle remains the only player in history to hit 50 or more doubles and 50 or more home runs in the same season. And, Alfonso Soriano remains the only player in the 40double/40homerun club to steal 40 bases in the same season.

The 40double/40homerun Club
* denotes 452B and 45HR
** denotes 502B and 50HR

2B HR Year Player, Team
44 59 1921 Babe Ruth, Yankees
46 42 1922 Rogers Hornsby, Cardinals
45 41 1923 Babe Ruth, Yankees
52 47 1927 Lou Gehrig, Yankees*
45 43 1929 Chuck Klein, Phillies
42 41 1930 Lou Gehrig, Yankees
59 40 1930 Chuck Klein, Phillies
40 49 1934 Lou Gehrig, Yankees
45 42 1936 Hal Trosky, Indians
49 40 1937 Hank Greenberg, Tigers
50 41 1940 Hank Greenberg, Tigers
43 44 1973 Willie Stargell, Pirates
52 50 1995 Albert Belle, Indians**
45 40 1996 Ellis Burks, Rockies
46 49 1997 Larry Walker, Rockies*
50 45 1998 Juan Gonzalez, Rangers*
48 49 1998 Albert Belle, White Sox*
45 42 1999 Shawn Green, Blue Jays
41 45 1999 Chipper Jones, Braves
44 43 2000 Frank Thomas, White Sox
57 41 2000 Carlos Delgado, Blue Jays
42 44 2000 Richard Hidalgo, Astros
59 42 2000 Todd Helton, Rockies
54 49 2001 Todd Helton, Rockies*
51 43 2003 Albert Pujols, Cardinals
51 46 2004 Albert Pujols, Cardinals*
44 43 2004 Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
47 41 2004 David Ortiz, Red Sox
40 47 2005 David Ortiz, Red Sox
50 46 2005 Derek Lee, Cubs*
41 43 2005 Mark Texiera
41 46 2006 Alfonso Soriono
45 47 2009 Albert Pujols, Cardinals*

Growing up watching Barry Larkin play I can remember his entire 19 year career with the Reds include 12 all star appearances, 3 gold gloves, a career .295/.371/.444, and 397 steals with only 77 caught stealing for an impressive 84% steal percentage. He would retire with 9 silver slugger awards, 441 doubles and 198 home runs. More important for his bid into Cooperstown is how he performed in clutch situations. He hit 338/.397/.465 in his postseason career and .353/.421/.529 in the World Series, along with 8 steals in 9 attempts.

While these numbers may sound Cooperstown worthy at first glance, there is one unfortunate kink in Barry’s armor that could hold him back from making it, perennial injuries. Appearing in 145 games only 4 times and 125 games only 8 times, Larkin would retire with a career average of 119 games played per year. To put it into perspective, Cal Ripken Jr appeared in 610 more games with 2,828 more at-bats then Larkin in those same 19 years.

With that said, Larkin’s absenteeism did not matter in 1995 when he was awarded an MVP award when in only 131 games played he hit .319/.394/.492 with 98 runs scored, 29 doubles, 15 home runs and 51 stolen bases in only 56 attempts. Although he essentially missed 4 full seasons to injury, his numbers hold their own in comparison to current Hall of Fame shortstops.

Compared to the 22 current Hall of Fame shortstops Larkin holds his own. While he may not compare to elite offensive shortstops like Honus Wagner, Ernie Banks and Robin Yount, he does compare well to the second tier offensive players like Luke Appling .310/.399/.398, Lou Boudreau .295/.380/.415, Joe Cronin .301/.390/.468 and Joe Sewell .312/.391/.413. He also compares well to the speedy and defensive shortstops like Luis Aparicio .262/.311/.343 with 505 stolen bases and 9 gold gloves, Ozzie Smith .262/.337/.328 with 580 stolen bases and 14 gold gloves, Rabbit Maranville .258/.318/.340 with 291 stolen bases, and Pee Wee Reese .269/.366/.377 with 231 stolen bases.

Offensively, Barry Larkin would fall between the elite and the second tier. His 198 career home runs and 397 stolen bases are in the top 5 amongst current Hall of fame shortstops and his average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, runs scored, and runs batted in are in the top 10. It is worth mentioning the integrity and character of Barry Larkin, a winner of both the Lou Gehrig Memorial Award and Roberto Clemente Award.

Another factor in determining whether or not Barry Larkin will make it into Cooperstown is the weakness of the next few Hall of Fame classes. The 2010 class features Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier, Andy Ashby, Ellis Burks, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Shane Reynolds, Robin Ventura, and Todd Zeile. The only two names on that list worth mentioning are Roberto Alomar, Edgar Martinez and Fred McGriff.

In 2011 features Kevin Brown, John Olerud, Tino Martinez, BJ Surhoff, Marquis Grissom, Al Leiter, Raul Mondesi, two steroid users in Juan Gonzalez and Rafael Palmeiro, one “on the bubble” in Larry Walker and two definates in John Franco and Jeff Bagwell. So, if by some chance Larkin does not get inducted in 2010, he should in 2011.

After listening to Howard Eskine argue with Ike Reese quite adamantly during today’s broadcast that Ryan Howard could improve his offensive numbers if he were to “choke up” with two strikes, I decided to research the issue. How could someone that has averaged 100+ runs, 25+ doubles, 51 home runs 144 rbi’s, and 100 walks over the past three seasons improve such monster numbers? Let me explain.

There are a few unwritten rules that are distilled upon all baseball players from the first time he or she picks up a bat. Always freeze on line drives. Never swing at the first pitch of an inning. Never stab at a pitch when bunting. The list goes on. But there is one rule that few players not named Bobby Abreu or David Eckstein have forgotten somewhere along the way; shortening your swing with two strikes.

Sure people argue that Howard should swing for the fences every at bat and I agree to some extent. That extent includes all pitch counts other than 0-2 and 1-2. Over the past three seasons Ryan Howard has 416 at-bats in which the count grew to 0-2 or 1-2, or roughly 25% of his total at-bats.

In those 416 at-bats Howard is batting a measly .158 with only 19 home runs. His 261 strikeouts add up to a 63% strikeout to at-bat ratio during those counts. If he were to shorten his swing like Jayson Werth did last night in his game winning and series clinching single against the Colorado Rockies, he could surely increase his numbers.

Sure, he would lose those 19 home runs, but I can live with a 45 home run average per year if he hits more singles and gets on base for Jayson Werth who hit .283 with runners on over the past three seasons and Raul Ibanez who hit .321 over the same span. Being clutch does not always mean hitting the long ball. And, only time will tell if Milt Thompson can teach this to the former most valuable player Ryan Howard.

Chicks dig the long ball. It has been instilled in our heads since I can remember. Truthfully, I never fully believed it in because the closest I ever came to a home run in little league was when my best friend parked a lob ball over the left field fence right where I was sitting.

With that said it seems like times are changing in the 21^st century as several yahoo threads have rated Brian Roberts the sexiest man in baseball, Roberts being a guy who has never reached the 20 home run plateau. He has been under the microscope as of recent as he has become just the fourth player in the history of the game to reach 50 doubles in three different seasons.

Tris Speaker accomplished it five times, Stan Musial four times, and Paul Waner three times. With one more steal, Brian Roberts will become the only one of the four with two 30+ stolen bases in those same seasons. I should also mention that he had 29 steals the first time he reached 50 doubles.

Roberts reached 50 doubles this year with 23 games remaining on the schedule. He now needs 6 doubles with 12 games remaining to become the first player since 1936 to reach 60 doubles. Both Todd Helton and Carlos Delgado fell just short of this mark in 2000. If Brian Roberts does in fact reach this heralded feat, he will become just the 7^th player to do so, four of which are Hall of Famers.

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So when Joe Morgan said in the middle of an ESPN broadcast this year that Utley could go down as the best 2^nd basemen ever, I was speechless. Morgan would add “he’s got a beautiful stroke, what a beautiful swing, great hands.”

Would Nicholas ever say the same about Tiger? Would Jordan ever say that same about Labron? If Joe Morgan of all people complimented Chase Utley, it has to be justified.

This got me wondering where Utley currently ranks amongst the best 2^nd basemen of all time.

The top ten 2^nd Basemen of all time in no specific order are Eddie Collins, Joe Morgan, Rogers Hornsby, Nap Lajoie, Charlie Gehringer, Jackie Robinson, Frankie Frisch, Roberto Alomar, Craig Biggio, and Ryne Sandberg

Through the first six years of his career, his first being a half season and the sixth being just about 3/5 way through, Chase Utley has more Home Runs, RBI’s, and Total Bases than every player on the list, and more doubles than every player but Nap Lajoie, who has 17 more. And by seasons end, he will have more runs than everyone but Lajoie, Gehringer and Robinson.

Where Utley Ranks
HR 1st
RBI 1st
TB 1st
2B 2^nd (trails Lajoie by 17)
R 4^th

While Utley may trail in avg he has a career .300 average and a slg above .500 good for the last three silver slugger awards. And while he is not necessarily known for stealing bases his 74 and 85 tries gives him a career 87% stolen base percentage.

While we may not know for a while if he Joe Morgan is correct, tt is pretty safe to say that Utley will end up being the best Phillies 2^nd Basemen of all time. Of the 32 players in the Hall of Fame that have worn a Phillies jersey, 5 were second basemen; Sparky Anderson, Ryne Sandberg, Joe Morgan, Johnny Evers and Nap Lajoie.

However, Anderson was voted in as a manager, Sandberg and Evers were both only a Phillie for one year, Morgan showed up towards of the end of his career after the Big Red Machine, and Lajoie was enshrined more so for his work with Cleveland.

The second tier Phillies 2^nd basemen of all time, Tony Taylor, Juan Samuel, Manny Trillo and Dave Cash were all “All good second basemen but not great second basemen,” this according to unofficial team historian Rich Westcott, who would go on to say that he would put Chase far and away the best.

So what do current and former managers think of Utley? Current Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel described Chase as the most prepared player he has ever been around. Former Phillies GM Ed Wade said the “only thing standing between Chase and the Hall of Fame is a potential health issue.” Former Phillies manager Jim Fregosi described him as “The best…A complete player…Improved so much defensively…The way he plays. The kind of hitter he is. The power he displays…Just the all-around ability he has.” And, Phillies chairman Bill Giles said of Utley, “The best that I have ever seen play, or know about in the history of the Phillies.”

Is Utley the best 2^nd Basemen of all time? The numbers speak for themselves. Even if they didn’t, former managers, chairmen, and coaches do. Only time will tell.

There have been eight players in the history of baseball that have had 5 consecutive seasons with 40 or more home runs. There have been 3 with 6 or more, Babe Ruth being the only with no ties to performance enhancing drugs. The other two, Alex Rodriguez and Sammy Sosa, achieved this for 6 consecutive seasons, and Babe Ruth for 7.

When Adam Dunn hits 3 more home runs he will become just the fourth player to hit 40 home runs for 6 straight seasons, and the first to do so with 6 straight seasons of 20 or more doubles and 100 or more walks.

Alex Rodriguez and Sammy Sosa achieved 40+ home runs 6 straight years. A-rod only achieved 100 walks once and Sosa only twice. And Sosa hit 20 plus doubles in only 5 of 6 years. Ruth, who still remains king with 7 straight seasons of 40 or more home runs, hit 20 plus doubles and 100 walks in 6 only of 7 seasons.

There are only 50 players in major league history with 500 or more doubles, Bobby Abreu currently has 475. There are only 20 players in the history of baseball in the 250/250 club, Abreu being one. There have been fifty two 30-30 seasons by 32 different players, Abreu has two.

Abreu is one of only six players in major league history with 250 home runs, 2,000 hits, 1,000 runs, 1,000 runs batted in, 1,000 walks and 300 stolen bases. The others are Barry Bonds, Craig Biggio, Joe Morgan, Rickey Henderson and Willie Mays. Mays, Morgan and Henderson are in baseball’s Hall of Fame; Bonds and Biggio had Hall of Fame-caliber careers but are not yet eligible for induction.

He is on pace to finish this year with 100+ runs batted in for the 7^th consecutive year.Only 12 players have reached 8 consecutive seasons and 4 are linked to performance enhancing drugs:

1 Lou Gehrig
2 Jimmie Foxx
3 Al Simmons
4 Alex Rodriguez
5 Rafael Palmeiro
6 Manny Ramirez
7 Sammy Sosa
8 Albert Pujols
9 Babe Ruth
10 Mel Ott
11 Willie Mays
12 Frank Thomas

In the history of major league baseball 263 players have reached the 1000 rbi milestone and 301 have reached the 1000 run milestone. Abreu has already achieved both and is 250 runs and 325rbis short of becoming just the 15^th player with 1500 runs and 1500 rbis.

If he retired today he would be top 45 all time in on base percentage. And, unless my research is incorrect he is the only player to ever reach 30HR, 40SB, 402B, 100 BB, 100RBI, and 100R in one season. So you tell me, is he hall of fame bound?

I am not knocking Jimmy Rollins as a player. Frankly I do not care if he hits 200 for the rest of his career as long as he maintains his career fielding percentage of .983, which would rank first in the history of the Phillies franchise.

With that said I have never liked him as a leadoff hitter especially the year he won the National League MVP award. Jimmy Rollins has never reached a .350obp or 60bb in a full season, staggering stats for a leadoff man. On the other hand, Jayson Werth has never had a year under a .360obp since joining the Phillies.

Argument for Werth
Since joining the Phills in 2007, Jayson Werth has tallied 120 walks in 789 at-bats or 1 every 6.5 at-bats. He has stolen 35 bases and only been caught 3 times giving him a 92% success rate. Batting #1 he is 17-61(.278avg) with the Phills with a .372obp. Leading off an inning with the Phills he is 51-166 (.307avg) with a .398obp. Since 2007, Werth has 120bb in 925pa or .13 BB/PA, almost double Rollins career .073 BB/PA.

This is not rocket science guys. A leadoff man should see pitches, foul a few off, make the opposing pitcher tired. Werth has a career 4.52 P/PA and 4.55P/PA since joining the Phillies. Jimmy on the other hand, 3.21 for his career. Werth is 2nd in the MLB,1st in the NL, this season in P/PA and would have finished the same last year but fell a few plate appearances shy for eligibility.

It came as quite a surprise when Twins manager Ron Gardenhire announced that his opening day starting outfield could consist of Michael Cuddyer in right field, Carlos Gomez in center field, and Denard Span in left field.

Surely, he must have forgotten about Delman Young. Surely he knows that professtional hitters are commonplace in the Young genes as older brother Dmitry has a career .292 average. Surely he knows that both right handed hitters, Cuddeyer and Gomez, both his below .250 this past year. Surely he did not forget that in 163 career games in right field, Young has 20 career assists. I could see Gardenhire forgetting some of Young’s diving catches as they appear in such high quantites, but not his American League leading 11 assists in left field this year.

Surely Gardenhire knows that Young hit .298 with runners on this past year while Cuddyer and Gomez hit .276 and .265. If Rodney Dangerfield was still alive, he might dedicate a “No Respect” portion of his next stand-up to Young, but since he’s not I will. Young may be the best 4th year million dollar player in the major leagues.

And, ESPN, please stop complaining about Bobby Abreau getting the short end of the stick this year on a “shafty” contract. He has made $91.25 million for his career, $16 million of it in 2008, which ranks as Venezuela’s second highest grossing export behind crude oil. He has a starting spot on a playoff contender, will make $8 million this year, and another few million in Pepsi advertisements in Argentina.

And, do not get me started on Adam Dunn, who complains he should be making Ryan Howard money. Sure Adam Dunn has hit the 40 home run mark in each of the last 5 years. But, he also averages over 175 strikeouts and has never hit higher than .265 with runners on base. Meanwhile, Howard has near a .300 average in the same situaitons.

Over these five 40hr years, Dunn has hit .235 in 2008, .257 in 2007, .217 in 2006, .244 in 2005, and .265 in 2004 with runners on base. Additionally, 56 percent (116 of 206) of his home runs were of the empty base persuasion. In Howard’s case over the same 5 years less than 46% of his home runs (81 of 177) were with the bases empty, with more than half of those (41) leading off an inning.

And while Delmon Young may never reach the 40 home run mark, let alone this upcoming year, he is a great $1.15 million player. What Young provides to the Minnesota Twins is a superior outfielder to a team who made the 3rd most errors in the American League last year. Defense wins championships, not Ron Gardenhire.